It’s All a Numbers Game

Following my research about sabermetrics, I viewed many websites that had player’s statistics and decided to try to do some baseball math of my own. Below is a key to statistical acronyms and a layout of the Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Zack Greinke’s statistics during the 2016, 2017, and 2018 seasons.

I specifically chose to demonstrate sabermetrics by using Zack Greinke’s statistics because he is one of the few professional baseball players that use sabermetrics to better their own game. Greinke watches film and does that math to craft a pitch list for each individual batter on the team he is facing. Researching what pitches they hit well, what they’re likely to swing on when the count is 3-2, or if that player has only hit home runs off of knuckle curveballs allows Greinke to pitch specifically to each player, ultimately increasing his probability of winning.

Statistics courtesy of FanGraphs

I’m not experienced enough in statistics to successfully calculate advanced sabermetrics although, I found a website that calculates wins above replacement (WAR) and other advanced statistics through Microsoft Excel. Senior Stephan Park is the Webb Schools varsity baseball leading offensive player.

Statistics courtesy of MaxPreps

Using his statistics from the 2018 season, courtesy of MaxPreps, I used Fansided.com’s war calculator to calculate Stephan Park’s WAR. The calculator is set to calculate statistics based on the Major League hitter’s schedule. Therefore, prior to imputing Stephan’s statistics I had to translate his high school season statistics to their Major League equivalent.

Calculating wins above replacement, commonly known as WAR, helps a team asses which players are the most vital for success. Wins above replacement sum up a players contribution to the team by analyzing their batting, baserunning, fielding, and pitching by using the calculation shown below. (Courtesy of Wikipedia) The higher the number produced, the more valuable the player is to the team in order to win. In my calculation with Stephen Park’s statistics, he received a WAR of 2.0. Meaning, The Webb Gauls would be projected to win two more games with Stephan playing rather than a replacement player (hence, wins above replacement).

To gain further insight into sabermetrics, I contacted experts in the field of mathematics, who also happen be baseball fans. Andrew Neyer is a statistics teacher at The Webb Schools and an avid Cincinnati Reds fan. The other voice on the tape is Stephen Caddy, a mathematics teacher at The Webb Schools, host of JOCKTALK, and Canadian sports fan. I spoke to them about sabermetrics, its function, its purpose, and if they would use sabermetrics.

Listen Here!

In our conversation, Mr. Neyer and Mr. Caddy, and I discussed the flexibility of sabermetrics and in what fashion a team uses them, therefore affecting the impact of sabermetrics. We touch on how statistics are used in mathematics and how they are used in a similar manner in the world of baseball. And if they were General Managers, they would definitely use sabermetrics to gain an edge on the other team.